On the eve of Election Day, Trump skipped the campaign trail to promote his Reflecting Pool makeover at the Lincoln Memorial — his closing argument as voters decide Tuesday who controls Congress for his final two years.
NewsCubby election-eve guide | The Source: seven battlegrounds that decide Congress
ELECTIONS & CONGRESS
THE KEY RACES THAT COULD TIP CONTROL OF CONGRESS — Democrats need three House seats and four Senate seats; North Carolina and Maine are central in the Senate, and three Pennsylvania House districts could flip that chamber by themselves.
THE MAP, RACE BY RACE: 435 HOUSE SEATS, 35 SENATE SEATS, 36 GOVERNORSHIPS — Early voting has topped 50 million, a midterm record, with Texas turnout running especially high.
FORECAST MODELS: HOUSE LEANS DEMOCRATIC, SENATE A NARROW EDGE — One simulation run puts the House at 233 Democrats and the Senate at 52 Democrats, with wide ranges.
TRUMP WARNS HE MAY HAVE TO BECOME “MR. VETO” — The president concedes Democrats may win a chamber, and says vetoes would force a deal.
VOTERS IN A SOUR MOOD ON THE ECONOMY HEADING INTO TUESDAY — High and rising prices top the list, with many voters blaming tariffs and the Iran war.
BUSINESS & YOUR MONEY
FUTURES HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S TECH SELLOFF — S&P futures +0.5%, Nasdaq futures +0.9% in early trade, after the Nasdaq lost almost 7% in October.
OIL BELOW $100 AS IRAN DIPLOMACY HOPES RISE — WTI fell more than 4% to about $99.31; Brent fell 4.4% to about $108.37.
APPLE AND PALANTIR REPORT AFTER THE CLOSE — Apple is the penultimate Magnificent Seven report; AMD, Pfizer, Qualcomm, McDonald’s and Uber follow this week.
QUICK HITS
HARVARD MODEL: DEMOCRATS 96% TO TAKE THE HOUSE, 78% TO TAKE THE SENATE
PREDICTION MARKETS NOW FAVOR DEMOCRATS IN ALL 7 TOP SWING SENATE RACES
46 MILLION HAVE ALREADY VOTED — A MIDTERM RECORD
TRUMP RENEWS $5,000 PAYOUT PLEDGE IF REPUBLICANS KEEP CONGRESS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
JUSTICE DEPT. BREAKS WITH TRADITION TO INTERVENE IN THE MIDTERMS — Courts have now rejected its suits in California and Alaska; the department says it will appeal the Alaska ruling.
JUDGE THROWS OUT BID TO DELAY ALASKA SENATE CERTIFICATION — The court found no workable way to segregate ballots for the “Decoy Dan” Sullivan dispute without breaking ballot secrecy.
SWEEPING ORDER HALTS DOJ PRESSURE CAMPAIGN ON ELECTION OFFICIALS — A federal judge barred demands to segregate ballots, purge rolls or halt processing, and barred threats of prosecution, through November 16.
WHITE HOUSE: NO U.S. ATTACK ON IRAN BEFORE THE MIDTERMS — The statement, issued after Netanyahu’s election-eve claim, says the blockade stays in full force.
$15 BILLION FARM RELIEF ROLLED OUT AHEAD OF THE VOTE — $8 billion in diesel relief plus $5 billion in guaranteed loans, with payment rates still to come in November.
NTSB ‘GO-TEAM’ AT FLORIDA LEARJET CRASH SITE — Nine aboard died Sunday in Greenacres; investigators brief in West Palm Beach today, with no ground deaths reported.
BUSINESS & YOUR MONEY
AI STOCKS CATCH THEIR BREATH; $2.5 TRILLION SHED IN OCTOBER — The Nasdaq-100’s October slide neared correction territory as investors questioned AI spending returns.
MORNING BRIEF: ISM MANUFACTURING AT 10 AM, 464 EARNINGS TODAY — The day’s data point to watch, plus a heavy earnings slate headlined by Apple.
MORTGAGE RATES EASE TO A ONE-MONTH LOW — BUT PAYMENTS STILL NEAR RECORDS — 30-year fixed at 7.24% (Freddie Mac); median monthly payment $2,786, up 10.7% year over year.
QUICK HITS
ADMINISTRATION ASKS SUPREME COURT TO SIDELINE 20,000 CALIFORNIA BALLOTS
TRUMP VOWS TO PROTECT MUSK, FLOATS PRE-EMPTIVE PARDONS FOR STAFF
GEOPOLITICS
IRAN NEGOTIATORS LEAVE DOHA; DRAFT DEAL CIRCULATING — Three days of Qatari-mediated talks end with a draft proposal and a possible follow-up meeting; the Strait of Hormuz plan is now floated on a 2-day timeline, not 7.
TEHRAN SIGNALS HOPE FOR TALKS, WITH CONDITIONS ATTACHED — Lifting the naval blockade and sanctions relief remain Iran’s stated price for any final deal.
TRUMP FAVORS DIPLOMACY AS NETANYAHU PRESSES FOR STRIKES AFTER TUESDAY — Reports say Netanyahu pushed for action on November 4; Trump is said to want the Doha track to run longer.
ARAB PARTIES EXPECTED TO BACK EISENKOT AS COALITION TALKS OPEN — Final count: Netanyahu’s bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties a record 19 — Herzog receives the official results Wednesday and opens consultations.
WHO WILL BE ISRAEL’S NEXT PRIME MINISTER AFTER THE DEADLOCK? — Prediction markets lean to Eisenkot over Netanyahu, but neither bloc has the 61 seats — weeks of coalition talks, or a fresh vote, ahead.
LIBERMAN BACKS EISENKOT FOR PM, RULES OUT ANY NETANYAHU ALLIANCE — Yisrael Beytenu will recommend Eisenkot to Herzog and back Lapid for Knesset speaker — and says a unity government under Netanyahu is off the table.
BUSINESS & YOUR MONEY
HOUSING MARKET PARALYZED AHEAD OF THE MIDTERMS — Pending sales at a record low, new construction at a four-month low, and $115,600 income now needed for the typical home.
QUICK HITS
TUCKER CARLSON: NETANYAHU GOADING TRUMP TOWARD AN IRAN STRIKE
CHINA BUILT MORE THAN TWICE THE NAVAL TONNAGE OF THE U.S. IN TWO YEARS